A warm front has lifted to our north and stalled out ahead of a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. This is helping to move warm air into Central New York on the heels of an increasing southwest breeze. We’re expecting high temperatures to reach the low and mid 40s this afternoon. Winds will be gusty today, upwards of 25mph at times, but the greatest wind increase will occur ahead of a cold front that is approaching tonight. As the winds shift from the southwest to the west and northwest by Sunday morning, areas close to Lake Ontario can expect gusts upwards of 50mph.
The cold front that will pass through Central New York early on Sunday is a potent one. That means there should be quite a bit of change around here to end the weekend. We think temperatures will drop through the 20s and will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds (especially the first half of the day) and even some lake effect snow. With winds staying out of the west, the best chance for accumulating lake effect Sunday will be east of Lake Ontario. Lake snow could very well drop south close to the Syracuse area late in the day or at night as winds turn into the northwest.
This shot of arctic air arriving Sunday will be colder than what is over us now and will last longer as well. It now looks like we could have four consecutive days where highs only make it into the teens. As mentioned earlier, we will also focus closely on the wind in the lower atmosphere since that will determine where lake effect snow will occur. Given the intensity of the cold air and its depth, it’s reasonable to consider the prospect of locally heavy lake effect snow. However, exactly where that may occur is still unclear right now. We’ll keep you posted.