On this morning’s weather map, cold air is producing lake effect clouds and snow showers over parts of the region early today with low pressure evident near the US/Canadian boarder by North Dakota.
As the day unfolds, winds will shift into the west and southwest while increasing in response to the aforementioned storm racing southeast to a position over northwest Wisconsin by this evening. Consequently, lake effect snow showers and flurries will tend to weaken and shift north this afternoon. Accumulations today should be minimal, less than 2".
As low pressure continues move east tonight, warmer air will move into Central New York on the heels of an increasing southwest breeze. The initial arrival of the milder air will likely be announced by a period of snow showers and flurries. It’s possible that snow will be enhanced east of Lake Ontario as the air may still be cold enough tonight to trigger a “lake response”. Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to expect a few inches of snow over the Tug Hill region tonight.
Milder air will continue to filter into the region Saturday as winds really begin to increase. The break in the chill will be brief for Central New York because low pressure is expected to track from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada Sunday and drag a strong cold front through the state Sunday morning. That means there should be quite a bit of change around here to end the weekend. We think temperatures will drop through the 20s and will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds and even lake effect snow. The lake snow would be concentrated east of Lake Ontario during the day but could very well drop south into the Syracuse area Sunday night as winds turn into the northwest.
This shot of arctic air arriving Sunday will be colder than what is over us now and will last longer as well. We figure there should be three days where highs only make it into the teens. As mentioned earlier, we will also focus closely on the wind in the lower atmosphere since that will determine where lake effect snow will occur. Given the intensity of the cold air and its depth, it’s reasonable to consider the prospect of locally heavy lake effect snow. However, exactly where that may occur is still unclear right now. We’ll keep you posted.