Snow showers have been at their greatest intensity close to the shore of Lake Ontario. We’re expecting that the snow will begin to move northwards through the afternoon, with the heaviest snow continuing to hug the lakeshore as it goes. With the band moving rather quickly, additional accumulations should be minimal, confined to a dusting to an inch for most with 1-3” possible for those nearer to the lake.
Low pressure, currently northwest of New York State, continues move east on this Friday night. This will help warmer air move into Central New York on the heels of an increasing southwest breeze. The initial arrival of the milder air will likely be announced by a period of snow showers and flurries. It’s possible that snow will be enhanced east of Lake Ontario as the air may still be cold enough tonight to trigger a “lake response”. Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to expect a few inches of snow over the Tug Hill region tonight.
Milder air will continue to filter into the region Saturday as winds really begin to increase. The break in the chill will be brief for Central New York because low pressure is expected to track from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada Sunday and drag a strong cold front through the state Sunday morning. That means there should be quite a bit of change around here to end the weekend. We think temperatures will drop through the 20s and will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds and even lake effect snow. The lake snow would be concentrated east of Lake Ontario during the day but could very well drop south into the Syracuse area Sunday night as winds turn into the northwest.
This shot of arctic air arriving Sunday will be colder than what is over us now and will last longer as well. We figure there should be three days where highs only make it into the teens. As mentioned earlier, we will also focus closely on the wind in the lower atmosphere since that will determine where lake effect snow will occur. Given the intensity of the cold air and its depth, it’s reasonable to consider the prospect of locally heavy lake effect snow. However, exactly where that may occur is still unclear right now. We’ll keep you posted.