A cold front has changed our weather significantly over the course of the second half of the weekend. After seeing very high gusting winds through Sunday (62mph reported in Watertown, 77mph over Lake Ontario near Oswego!) things are starting to calm down. The moderately slower winds are actually helping to enhance lake effect snow showers though, allowing more time for the cold air to traverse across the milder lake. We’re expecting that snowfall rates will be at their highest immediately southeast of Lake Ontario. Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Oneida Counties are all under a lake effect snow warning and can expect to see 6-10” from Sunday evening through Monday morning.
As is common with lake effect snow, conditions are subject to rapid change over the course of short distances. In some cases visibility may be reduced to less than a quarter of a mile at times. This is important to note, as lake effect snows will likely still be around Monday morning as some head to work.
Martin Luther King Jr. Day will feature some more changes. For one thing, it will be significantly colder with highs only in the teens. In the afternoon we’ll be watching as a disturbance swings by to our south. This will likely break up the lake enhanced showers and allow for snow to become more widespread. This will be a rather short-lived scenario, as west/northwest flow returns for Tuesday with conditions favorable yet again for a band of lake effect snow.
For now, lake snow showers are in the forecast through Wednesday. As we continue to monitor incoming computer models, we will be able to pinpoint where lake effect snow bands are likely to set up and keep you updated.