The atmosphere over us is just favorable early tonight for a bit of lake effect. The air aloft is warming but at least through the evening it will be cool enough for rain and snow showers. The winds will be shifting from the southwest into the west which will put the lake effect over the counties east of Lake Ontario. The best chance for any accumulation (a couple inches or less) will be over the Tug Hill. Later overnight, the air aloft will be too warm for lake effect.
High pressure will be just to our south tomorrow which means a sunny and mild day over central New York. This mild air will be with us into Friday although there may not be as much sunshine as a cold front approaches us from Canada. This front will move through the state Friday night and deliver some slightly cooler air to start the weekend. After Saturday, however, our weather becomes more active.
First, we will watch low pressure tracking from the Plains to the Great Lakes. This system will weaken as it moves east. Enough mild air will move into central New York causing a mix of rain and wet snow to fall from system from Sunday into Monday. After Monday, a more significant system could impact us.
A second area of low pressure will track across the Gulf Coast Monday then take a turn to the north along the East Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. While it is still six days out, this coastal system will likely be stronger than the one that impacts us Sunday/Monday. If that turns out to be the case, the first shot of widespread wintry could be in the cards for central New York during the middle of next week. There is still plenty of uncertainty this far out in time so make sure you check back over the next few days.