Low pressure moving away from central New York into New England has caused our winds to turn into the west-northwest. This is delivering cooler air into central New York and will cause a change over from rain to wet snow. Over the lower elevations we expect little if any accumulation but over higher terrain, especially the hills south of Syracuse and the Tug Hill, there could be an inch or two of accumulation by morning.
It still looks like our weather will be relatively quiet tomorrow and into Thursday. Any lingering rain or snow showers will end during the morning and we are still hopeful for some sun in the afternoon. We’ve been watching an area of clearing now over the Great Lakes and that is forecast to move over us during the afternoon.
While much of Thursday will be rain-free, we will be watching a strengthening area of low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The counter-clockwise winds around this low will mean a southeasterly flow will develop over us. That keeps on the mild side of this storm system to start. We expect rain to arrive by late in the day and continue Thursday night as a cold front sweeps from west to east across the state.
By Friday morning, a second area of low pressure will try to form along the front to the southeast of central New York. This is where the forecast gets a bit tricky. Exactly when and where this second low forms will dictate how quickly we will see a change over to snow. Regardless of how Friday unfolds, this second low will head up into northern New England Friday night where it will slow down. The northwest winds on the backside of this low will pick up Friday night and continue into Saturday. With cold and moist air circulating around the storm and over Lake Ontario, the potential exists for accumulating snow in Central New York Friday night and into the weekend. Additionally, the potentially strong wind will make for lower wind chill temperatures.
With this complex system winding up this weekend, it looks like we are about to receive our first meaningful and impactful winter weather of the season…just in time as we officially welcome the start of winter on Friday. Be sure to check back for updates as we continue to fine tune the forecast.