A cold front was located over northern and western New York as of midday and was dropping to the south. This front will cause some showers and thunderstorms as it moves through central New York this afternoon. Since other than the warm air and the cold front conditions aren’t ideal for storms, we think the coverage of precipitation will be scattered in nature. In fact, as the front drops to our south this evening the threat for showers and storms will quickly decrease. Behind the cold front, less humid and marginally cooler air will filter into the region setting the stage for a comparably warm day tomorrow, but with less humidity.
While all of this is ongoing, a second and separate cold front will begin to organize over the Upper Plain States and Mid-West. This system is forecast to move east as an area of low pressure develops along the boundary. Presently, there are various possible outcomes regarding what unfolds Saturday. Some computer models indicate showers and thunderstorms will arrive as early as Friday night with heavy rain possible Saturday afternoon. Other reliable computer models keep much of Central New York dry until very late in the day Saturday.
Wind will also be another facet to Saturday’s weather as speeds may top 30-40 mph. This means we’ll need to carefully monitor any thunderstorms Saturday as strong winds and thunderstorms seldom make for a good combination.
Much cooler air will filter in behind the storm system setting the stage for a much cooler Sunday and Monday. In fact, the air should be sufficiently cool enough so that lake effect rain showers impact parts of Central New York. Additionally, should the high temperature fail to hit 70, it would mark the first time that has happened in three months!!