In spite of a west-northwesterly flow over central New York, the air over us is relatively dry and that is allowing for some sunshine across the region.. Temperatures this afternoon will level off in the mid 40s which is almost 10 degrees above average for this time of year.
It still looks like our weather will be relatively quiet tomorrow as the aforementioned high pressure moves through the region. We expect sunshine to start the day; however, clouds are expected to increase during the day. And while much of Thursday will be rain-free, we will be watching a strengthening area of low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The counter-clockwise winds around this low will mean a southeasterly flow will develop over us. That keeps on the mild side of this storm system to start. We expect rain to arrive by late in the day, probably after sunset, and continue Thursday night as a cold front sweeps from west to east across the state.
By Friday morning, a second area of low pressure will try to form along the front to the southeast of Central New York. This is where the forecast gets a bit tricky. Exactly when and where this second low forms will dictate how quickly we will see a change over to snow. Regardless of how Friday unfolds, this second low will head up into northern New England Friday night where it will slow down. The northwest winds on the backside of this low will pick up Friday night and continue into Saturday. With cold and moist air circulating around the storm and over Lake Ontario, the potential exists for accumulating snow in Central New York Friday night and into the weekend. Additionally, the potentially strong wind will make for lower wind chill temperatures and even blowing snow.
With this complex system winding up this weekend, it looks like we are about to receive our first meaningful and impactful winter weather of the season…just in time as we officially welcome the start of winter on Friday. Be sure to check back for updates as we continue to fine tune the forecast as details may change.