Low pressure, currently moving toward the Great Lakes, continues to move east on this Friday. This will help warmer air move into Central New York on the heels of an increasing southwest breeze. The initial arrival of the milder air will likely be announced by a period of light snow and flurries north of Syracuse tonight. It’s possible that snow will be enhanced east of Lake Ontario as the air may still be cold enough tonight to trigger a “lake response”. Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to expect a few inches of snow over the Tug Hill region into the Adirondacks tonight.
Milder air will continue to filter into the region Saturday as winds really begin to increase. The break in the chill, however, will be brief for Central New York. Low pressure is expected to track from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada Sunday and drag a strong cold front through the state Sunday morning. That means there should be quite a bit of change around here to end the weekend. We think temperatures will drop through the 20s and will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds (especially the first half of the day) and even some lake effect snow. With winds staying out of the west, the best chance for accumulating lake effect Sunday will be east of Lake Ontario. Lake snow could very well drop south close to the Syracuse area late in the day or at night as winds turn into the northwest.
This shot of arctic air arriving Sunday will be colder than what is over us now and will last longer as well. It now looks like we could have four consecutive days where highs only make it into the teens. As mentioned earlier, we will also focus closely on the wind in the lower atmosphere since that will determine where lake effect snow will occur. Given the intensity of the cold air and its depth, it’s reasonable to consider the prospect of locally heavy lake effect snow. However, exactly where that may occur is still unclear right now. We’ll keep you posted.