An intense area of low pressure is centered over New York with a cold front extending east from the center across the east coast. While we had earlier anticipated entering a dry slot of air, where rain/snow showers would have a break, moisture wrapping around the low pressure is re-entering central New York and keeping in the threat for scattered showers throughout the afternoon.
Winds will increase as well this afternoon and continue to pick up in strength through tonight. Additionally, snow showers are expected to become more widespread toward and after sunset as the strong storm system continues to move eastward, importing more of that wrap-around moisture.
The combination of moisture from the low pressure system and moisture from Lake Ontario will mean widespread snow tonight and tomorrow for much of the region. Up to 4” may fall tonight, with locally higher amounts possible. Another several inches of snow looks likely tomorrow, with the greatest amounts most probable over the hills of Central New York. Additional accumulation is possible Saturday night as the snow eases.
It should be noted that with the snow will be strong and gusty wind tonight and especially tomorrow. This will create reduced wind chill temperatures as well as blowing/drifting snow. Be especially mindful of this when driving in open and exposed areas as visibility may become reduced rather suddenly.
As for Sunday and beyond, indications are a weak cold front will attempt to drop southeast from Canada. The combination of the cold front itself, the leading edge to colder air, and the chilly air behind the front, may trigger more lake effect snow showers and/or squalls. Dry weather should return Christmas Eve, with some snow possible Christmas Day.